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Climate Change and UK Weather Conditions

At the end of April, the BBC published an article highlighting the dangers of climate change and how it could affect the regularity of flooding in the UK. The issue began amongst the January rainfalls that doubled compared to the normal showers we'd expect to see in this month. 

Professor Myles Allen presented alarming evidence that represented the link between climate change and floods at the European Geosciences Union meeting which took place in Vienna. The collected evidence showed that as the planet becomes warmer, it is increasing the risk of torrential weather and also suggested that insurance costs are more likely to rise as a result.

In addition, data extracted by the UK Met Office showed that the persistent, heavy rainfalls were a clear outlier in their records of rainfalls in the 20th century. However, scientists were able to trace the records to discover how extreme this winter was.

It was found that, since 1767, we had experienced the wettest winter throughout the world's daily shower records. At the time of the rainfalls, a lot of people had their suspicions that they may be linked to the growing problem of climate change, but previously this claim had been treated with caution.

A lot of studies that had been assessed in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report brought forward the idea that extreme weather conditions "should be expected in a warming world, but even there, the assessment was that the link could only be made could only be made modestly, with ‘medium' certainty."

Two months after the floods, a team at the University of Oxford conducted an "attribution experiment" in attempts to test if any links could be made between the ever-changing climate and local weather events such as the UK winter floods.

Dr Nathalie Schaller and Dr Friederike Otto, alongside a few others from the institute, compared results highlighting rainfalls in the UK against climate models that had been based on the current climate. The results brought forward a prediction that reviewed what the world would look like if we had never burned fossil fuels.

To conduct the experiment, the team had to organise and run around 12,842 simulations and use today's existing climate alongside 25,893 computer calculations of a world that hadn't experienced climate change in order to extract and compare the differences between the two.

They found that while a small difference would be made, it was still significant enough to suggest that global warming had an impact on wet English winters.

The final results of the study implied that any fluctuation in weather conditions, that was previously marked as a "one in 100-year event" rose in probability to one every 80 years as a result of climate change.

If you and your property have suffered as a result of a flood, we here at Relko group offer fire and flood restoration services to help you rebuild your life and get back on track. For more information on what we can do for you, please get in touch today through our website!